STATISTICAL LOW FLOW ESTIMATION USING GIS ANALYSIS IN HUMID MONTANE REGIONS IN PUERTO RICO1

ABSTRACT: Statistical analysis of watershed parameters derived using a Geographical Information system (GIS) was done to develop equations for estimating the 7d–10yr, 30d–10yr, and 7d–2yr low flow for watersheds in humid montane regions of Puerto Rico. Digital elevation models and land use, geology, soils, and stream network coverages were used to evaluate 21 geomorphic, 10 stream channel, 9 relief, 7 geology, 4 climate, and 2 soil parameters for each watershed. To assess which parameters should be used for further investigation, a correlation analysis was used to determine the independence and collinearity among these parameters and their relationship with low flows. Multiple regression analyses using the selected parameters were then performed to develop the statistical models of low flows. The final models were selected in the basis of the Mallow Cp statistic, the adjusted R², the Press statistic, the degree of collinearity, and an analysis of the residuals. In the final models, drainage density, the ratio of length of tributaries to the length of the main channel, the percent of drainage area with northeast aspect, and the average weighted slope of the drainage were the most significant parameters. The final models had adjusted standard errors of 58.7 percent, 59.2 percent, and 48.6 percent for the 7d–10yr, 30d–10yr, and 7d–2yr low flows respectively. For comparison, the best model based on watershed parameters that can be easily measured without a GIS had an adjusted standard error of 82.8 percent.     

The Impact of Lake-level Fluctuations on the Sediment Composition

Lithological and granulometric investigations of the surface and short core sediments in L. Martiska (northeastern Estonia) showed that variations in the grain-size parameters and LOI content were influenced by the changes in deposition conditions during the regression and transgression phases monitored in the lake since the 1960s. During the regression and transgression phases displacement of the erosion-transport-accumulation zones in the lake took place depending on the bottom topography. The water level fluctuations are especially clearly reflected in grain-size variations in cores from peripherial area.     

A Comparison of Sediment and Monitoring Data: Implications for Paleomonitoring a Small Lake

Long-term limnological monitoring data (from 1971 to 2001) were compared with sediment core record in Lake Viitna Linajärv (hereafter L. Viitna), a small lake in northern Estonia. The monitoring data show that L. Viitna changed from mesotrophic in the 1970s to eutrophic in the 1990s. The trends of paleodata thatintegrate the changes in the biogeochemical matter cycling in the lake over 2–3 years have clear signals about changes in the state ofthe ecosystem in L. Viitna during the last decades. A gradual increase in organic productivity should reflect a greater oxygen demand in the hypolimnion. As a result the hypolimnion becameseasonally anoxic earlier and its pH level remained low for a longer time. These fundamental changes near the sediment-water interface were recorded in the sediment core. The greatest changes occurred at the beginning of the 1980s (layers at a depthof ca. 20 cm), when the meso(eu?)trophic conditions in L. Viitnastarted to become increasingly more eutrophic. The variations ofpaleorecords in the upper part of the sediment core coincide temporally with changes in the water level of the lake.     

‘Carbon stocks in a Scots pine afforestation under different thinning intensities management’

Thinning, as a forest management strategy, may contribute towards mitigating climate change, depending on its net effect on forest carbon (C) stocks. Although thinning provides off-site C storage (in the form of wood products) it is still not clear whether it results in an increase, a reduction or no change in on-site C storage. In this study we analyze the effect of thinning on C stocks in a long-term experiment. Different thinning intensities (moderate, heavy and unthinned) have been applied over the last 30 years in a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stand, with a thinning rotation period of 10 years. The main C compartments were analyzed: above and belowground tree biomass, deadwood, forest floor and upper 30-cm of the mineral soil and tree biomass removed in thinning treatments. The results revealed that unthinned stands had the highest C stocks with 315 Mg C ha^?1, moderate thinning presented 304 Mg C ha^?1 and heavy thinning 296 Mg C ha^?1, with significant differences between unthinned and heavily thinned stands. These differences were mainly due to C stock in live biomass, which decreased with thinning intensity. However, soil C stocks, forest floor and mineral soil, were not influenced by thinning, all of the stands displaying very similar values 102–107 Mg C ha^?1 for total soil; 15–19 Mg C ha^?1 for forest floor; 87–88 Mg C ha^?1 for mineral soil). These results highlight the sustainability of thinning treatments in terms of C stocks in this pinewood afforestation, and provide valuable information for forest management aimed at mitigating climate change.     

Determination of carbamazepine and 12 degradation products in various compartments of an outdoor aquatic mesocosm by reliable analytical methods based on liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The aims of this work are to develop suitable analytical methods to determine the widely used anticonvulsant carbamazepine and 12 of its...     

Growth responses of Scots pine to climatic factors on reclaimed oil shale mined land

Afforestation on reclaimed mining areas has high ecological and economic importance. However, ecosystems established on post-mining substrate can become vulnerable due to climate variability. We used tree-ring data and dendrochronological techniques to study the relationship between climate variables and annual growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing on reclaimed open cast oil shale mining areas in Northeast Estonia. Chronologies for trees of different age classes (50, 40, 30) were developed. Pearson’s correlation analysis between radial growth indices and monthly climate variables revealed that precipitation in June–July and higher mean temperatures in spring season enhanced radial growth of pine plantations, while higher than average temperatures in summer months inhibited wood production. Sensitivity of radial increment to climatic factors on post-mining soils was not homogenous among the studied populations. Older trees growing on more developed soils were more sensitive to precipitation deficit in summer, while growth indices of two other stand groups (young and middle-aged) were highly correlated to temperature. High mean temperatures in August were negatively related to annual wood production in all trees, while trees in the youngest stands benefited from warmer temperatures in January. As a response to thinning, mean annual basal area increment increased up to 50 %. By managing tree competition in the closed-canopy stands, through the thinning activities, tree sensitivity and response to climate could be manipulated.     

Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/-9.2)ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation.     

波罗的海沿岸三国环境政策制订的驱动力

本文详尽阐述了国际环境体制和多边环境协议在波罗的海沿岸三国（爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛）制订本国环境政策过程中所起的作用。将污染物排放趋势与环境状况变化参照国际环境体制进行对比后可以得出结论，正式加入环境公约与环境领域所发生的变化之间并没有明显的联系。这三个波罗的海沿岸国家的做法是，先加入涉及全球性或区域性环境安全的国际环境体制，尔后才接受对于解决其自身环境问题比较重要的协议并加入相关的体制。因此，可以断定，这三个国家在制订自身环境政策过程中把国际法律文件看作是预防性的，而非整治性的。另一方面，它们认为，积极参与多边环境协议，对于在其环境政策方面采取下一个步骤，即接受欧盟的环境政策（"欧亚体经验规范"）（Acquis Communautaire），将起着巨大推动作用。